806
FXUS63 KDVN 290956
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
456 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain ending early this morning, with breezy northeast winds
  and clearing skies. Gusts up to 35 mph will be possible.

- Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions expected late week
  and into the weekend.

- Above normal temperatures and continued dry conditions next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Morning water vapor loops show closed low rotating over northwest
Arkansas, with its associated surface low near Poplar Bluff, MO
(KPOF). RAP40 analysis and 06z METARs show a tongue of 45+ dewpoints
extending NNW from this surface low into central IA. Closer to home,
radar mosaics show light rain and/or drizzle across the area with
the higher returns and subsequent higher rainfall occurring over
northeast IA extending southeast towards Sterling/Rock Falls. Dual
Pol radar estimates in this area show 0.30 to 0.50", with amounts
generally 0.25" or lower elsewhere.

Early This Morning...lingering light rain/drizzle will continue but
diminish from northeast to southwest over the next 3-6 hours as the
aforementioned upper low tracks across Arkansas. The 00z HREF
reflectivity progs and 06z CAMs suggest by 14z all activity will be
south of the CWA. In its place, gusty northeast winds will be seen
as pressure gradient tightens.

Today and Tonight...blustery conditions with gusty northeast
winds and clearing skies are forecast. Our DVN VWP at 06z this
morning showed 33kts at 3kft so once we begin to clear the
clouds and mix down, we should see some gusts around 30 mph.
Lowered afternoon highs slightly due to strong CAA today with
readings topping out in the upper 50s. Winds will begin to
subside around sunset, but remain above 5 kts to preclude any
fog formation overnight. Surface ridge to move into western and
central IA after midnight where there will be a higher risk for
fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Thursday-Friday...closed low over the Ohio river valley to lift
northeast into New England with northwest flow developing over the
Midwest. A diving positively tilted shortwave will move through the
Midwest on Friday, but with very limited moisture and a dry sub
cloud layer a dry forecast remains. A cooler airmass (850mb temps 0
to -2C) will bring seasonable highs in the 50s and lows in the mid
to upper 30s. It will be a great night for trick-or-treating
Friday night, just remember to wear a jacket!

This Weekend...large high pressure over the central CONUS will bring
dry and seasonable conditions to begin the month of November. Return
flow develops Sunday, with breezy southwest winds and afternoon
temperatures approaching 60 degrees.

Early Next Week...broad ridging is expected across the western
CONUS, with the active storm track remaining to our north
closer to the US-Canada border. As a result, dry conditions
will continue and with negative feedback from a dry ground,
large diurnal temperature swings are likely which is not
uncommon for the month of November. Above normal highs in the
low 60s and lows in the upper 30s are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 455 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Rain will continue to diminish in coverage with dry
northeasterly flow moving into the region. MVFR conditions to
improve to VFR at all sites by 14z, with strong northeast winds
gusting over 20kts at times through late afternoon. These winds
will begin to subside early evening, with clearing skies.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gross
LONG TERM...Gross
AVIATION...Gross

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion