945
FXUS63 KDVN 110535
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1235 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Several rounds of storms still to go through Thursday evening with
Enhanced Risk for most of the area. All modes of severe possible. It
may be an ideal set up for tornadic discrete supercells on Thursday.

- A juiced airmass and several rounds of storms to wring it out in
the form of heavy rainfall will make for a flash flood/flooding
threat across much of the area into Thursday morning, especially
south of Interstate 80.

-Cooler and quiet for Friday, then more storms possible on
 Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

In the wake of today`s MCS, watching the area getting some heating
and convergence with an upstream short wave from northeast KS into
far south central IA for renewed convective development over the
next few hours. This activity to then propagate eastward acrs the
local area again this evening(especially along and south of I-80)
with all modes of severe possible. High THTA-E LLJ impingement on
lingering outflow boundaries and cool pools from today`s first round
may promote back-building and some training of storm cells which
would make for a flash flood threat. Some of the CAM runs have
localized swaths of 2-4 inches by Thursday morning acrs the southern
DVN CWA. With some Thu morning storms also possible(although they
may occur north of the areas that may get hit hard tonight), have
already gone ahead and issued a flood watch for flash flooding acrs
the southern 2/3`s of the DVN CWA through 16z Thu morning.

A second area to watch for storm development this evening will be
along a frontal boundary pushing acrs central into northeast Iowa.
These storms may be strong as well but will be moving into worked
over areas by the earlier convection, as well as move into the
"shadow" of the expected storm clusters occurring to the south which
may take over the inflow support. This would hopefully produce a
decaying storm effect as the frontal convection moves east into the
DVN area of responsibility.

Thursday...An early morning MCS or convective cluster development
on the nose of a lingering LLJ and to the lee of a MCV or short wave
trof will look to occur around the Omaha area toward daybreak. This
activity will look to then propagate east-northeastwrad acrs IA with
better shear profiles supporting strong to severe storms even if
they are partially elevated in nature. This also as a frontal system
and sfc wave organize just west of the convection. If this
convection could become sfc rooted, backed LLVL flow may support a
morning tornado acrs the northwestern CWA or north of Hwy 30.
Otherwise they maybe more of a hail and downburst threat. After this
morning convection, a robust short wave trof will look to press it`s
way eastward acrs the area through Thu evening. There will be a sfc
reflection front and sfc wave sweeping east as well, and the CWA
will be engulfed in the breezy warm sector by Thu afternoon. Optimum
deep shear profiles and various jet level support support discrete
or semi discrete supercell development Thu afternoon, with a
potentially strong tornado genesis support regime. Large hail also
will look to be a factor, and the cells will look to mature as they
move acrs northern IL and southern WI. This is where longer track
tornado support will also migrate to as the afternoon progresses.
If the CAM ensembles are correct, most of the convection will be
east of the local area by 00-01z. High temp trends tricky for Thu
with the convection and boundaries, with quite a range possible from
northwest to southeast. Clearing and cooler for Thu night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Quick look at the longer range, a quiet, cooler and tranquil Friday
looks in store, then another frontal system takes aim at the region
on Saturday with potentially enough forcing to support some strong
storms. After that, a well needed reprieve as the storm track gets
shunted south and below normal temps infiltrate the area for highs
in the 70s Sunday and into early next week. Will have to watch for
nuisance clipper like systems for spotty precip chances in the
northwesterly steering flow next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The next 24 hours will have the potential of seeing high impact
weather across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. Two rounds
of convection should be seen; one during the morning and the
other in the afternoon to early evening. Numerous TSRA will be
seen. The morning storms may produce wind gusts up to 45 knots;
the afternoon storms may see wind gusts well over 50 knots and
hail. Cold front to be along the Mississippi by 00z/12 with
rapidly improving conditions behind it and slowly decreasing
winds.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flood Watch until 11 AM CDT this morning for IAZ063>068-
     076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Flood Watch until 11 AM CDT this morning for ILZ009-015>018-
     024>026-034-035.
MO...Flood Watch until 11 AM CDT this morning for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion