MD 0640 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN OH...WESTERN PA...NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0640
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024
Areas affected...Central/eastern OH...western PA...northern WV
Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 051712Z - 051945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible this afternoon. Isolated
damaging wind is expected to be the primary threat, along with hail
approaching severe limits.
DISCUSSION...A couple of storms have recently developed along a cold
front across northeast OH. Modest heating of a relatively moist
environment will support moderate destabilization (MLCAPE generally
1000-1500 J/kg) along/ahead of the cold front this afternoon. While
stronger ascent associated with a shortwave trough over parts of
Ontario and Quebec will stay north of the region, weakening CINH
will support some increase in storm coverage with time.
With only modest midlevel flow across the region, effective shear is
expected to remain relatively weak (generally 20-25 kt), and storms
will likely struggle to become organized. However, a few stronger
multicells could eventually evolve with time. Locally gusty winds
will be possible with the stronger cells, especially where stronger
heating occurs this afternoon. Also, despite the weak deep-layer
shear, moderate buoyancy and relatively cool temperatures aloft will
support potential for small to near-severe hail.
..Dean/Smith.. 05/05/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 39808335 40328271 41408140 42028042 42048025 41757947
41057895 40147930 39808013 39518163 39368262 39408287
39808335
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MD 0639 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0639
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024
Areas affected...South-central TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 051702Z - 051900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Ongoing convection should intensify across parts of
south-central Texas at some point this afternoon. Primary threat
should be from large hail between 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter.
Localized severe wind gusts and a brief tornado will also be
possible. Timing of severe storms beyond isolated coverage is
somewhat uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection exists from Maverick to Fayette
counties in south-central TX and separately along the Middle TX
coast. Ascent tied to a low-amplitude shortwave impulse that is
moving northeast and recently crossed the Rio Grande will be
maximized over the next few hours. Sufficient cloud breaks have
yielded temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s within the very
richly moist boundary layer ahead of the ongoing storms. This will
support a continued plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg, despite mid-level warming being well-progged to
occur in the wake of the shortwave impulse as it moves across the
area. Pronounced veering of the low-level wind profile with height
will also compensate for modest lower-level speeds and should
support at least transient supercell structures, with a primary
hazard of isolated large hail. Given the buoyancy profile, a
supercell or two may be longer-lasting, albeit slow-moving to the
southeast, as seemingly simulated by late morning HRRR and 12Z
NSSL-MPAS guidance. The less-than-ideal timing of large-scale ascent
does render uncertainty over the degree of severe storm coverage, as
well as longevity, especially towards early evening.
..Grams/Smith.. 05/05/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29099911 29589773 29669703 29169629 28759612 28359650
28019716 27849790 27799917 28049979 28610028 29099911
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