MD 0881 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0881
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Areas affected...portions of central Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 272307Z - 280030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The severe risk associated with an ongoing multicell
cluster across central Wisconsin should gradually decrease over the
next 1-2 hours. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts remain
possible in the meantime, however.
DISCUSSION...A multicell cluster with a embedded supercell
structures continues to track southward along and west of the I-39
corridor in central Wisconsin having produced several reports of
hail up to 2" in diameter and damaging wind gusts in the Wausau,
Wisconsin, vicinity over the past 1-2 hours. Expectation is for this
cluster to persist for another hour or two as it propagates
southward along an east-west oriented cold front and to the west of
a weak, north-south oriented lake breeze. Latest objective analysis
indicates that available buoyancy generally decreases with southward
extent. Coupled with the gradual onset of nocturnal low-level
cooling/stabilization, this should yield a gradual weakening of this
cluster with time. Modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and around
30 kts of effective shear amid moderately strong northwesterly flow
aloft (as sampled by the GRB VWP) will continue to promote a risk
for large hail with the strongest updrafts in the meantime, however.
Steep low-level lapse rates west of the lake breeze boundary will
also support a continued threat for isolated damaging wind gusts.
..Chalmers/Guyer.. 05/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 43228974 43479027 43929079 44389109 44699122 44859120
44969112 44859060 44799038 44718998 44558952 44438942
43948939 43578936 43268937 43188967 43228974
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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MD 0880 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247... FOR WEST VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0880
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Areas affected...West Virginia into central and southern parts of
Virginia
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247...
Valid 272254Z - 280100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts remain most likely across
portions of central and southern Virginia over the next couple of
hours.
DISCUSSION...As of 22:45 UTC a broken band of strong to severe
storms was ongoing from northeast of Roanoke to west of Richmond,
with a storm motion of 282/38 kt. Latest surface analysis and
visible satellite indicate a corridor of less-dense cloud cover to
the south of the ongoing storms, where temperatures remain in the
low/mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Resultant
MLCAPE is estimated in the 1000-1500 J/kg range within that corridor
with relatively steep low-level lapse rates. Area VWPs indicate
westerly winds above 1 km AGL with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear,
which will continue to support some storm organization for the next
couple of hours with the primary hazard being locally damaging wind
gusts.
Cooling boundary-layer temperatures and a corresponding increase in
air mass stability are expected to lead to an increasingly sporadic
severe threat by 01z.
..Mead.. 05/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...JKL...ILN...
LAT...LON 36538052 37248091 37268172 37708227 38348270 38928276
39248252 39248171 39218081 38917955 38687880 38237835
38017838 37797834 37657782 37537723 37317642 37137598
36927550 36617555 36487699 36538052
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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MD 0879 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0879
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Areas affected...portion of eastern Oklahoma into central/southern
Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 272208Z - 280015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms may bring a low-end risk for
isolated gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado through this
evening. Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...As of 2200 UTC, regional radar imagery depicted
scattered thunderstorms extending from eastern Oklahoma into
central/southern Arkansas immediately downstream of a mid-level
perturbation and in close proximity to a surface low analyzed near
the Red River. A couple of storms have shown signs of transient,
weak rotation and/or modestly enhanced velocity signatures over the
past hour. Expectation is for this activity to continue for another
few hours amid a moist and weak to modestly unstable environment
(MLCAPE of 1000-1500+ J/kg). While marginal deep-layer shear
(generally less than 30 kts) and poor mid-level lapse rates, as
sampled by the 18z SHV observed sounding, are largely expected to
temper updraft intensity, high precipitable water contents
(1.75-2.00+ inches per latest mesoanalysis) may promote occasional
water-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated gusty winds (largely in
the 40-45 mph range). A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out,
especially where a stronger low-level updraft can interact with
marginally enhanced low-level shear to the north-northeast of the
surface low. Given the expectation for any severe threat to remain
isolated and limited in magnitude, a WW is unlikely.
..Chalmers/Guyer.. 05/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 33349352 33839395 34119450 34489535 34579588 34629611
34819626 34999637 35449636 35759624 35989594 36129550
36139465 35989397 35779343 35329282 34899240 34529225
33969207 33469212 33199226 33029250 32879294 33009321
33349352
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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