MD 0172 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 26... FOR NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0172
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Areas affected...Northeastern Louisiana into Central Mississippi
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26...
Valid 072149Z - 072315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging thunderstorm winds continues
across WW 26 until 03 UTC.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms in WW 26 will continue across the area,
posing a threat primarily for damaging straight-line winds.
Thunderstorms associated with a convectively-modified cold front
moving east-southeast is going to intersect with warm sector
convection moving northward. These warm sector storms have developed
in a relatively dry boundary layer with inverted-v profiles
supporting downbursts/damaging wind gusts. An additional, localized
threat for damaging winds may materialize where thunderstorm/outflow
interactions occur over the next few hours.
..Halbert.. 03/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31679178 32269181 32379173 32439166 32509155 32669133
32839119 33019101 33159078 33259045 33378985 33508946
33568925 33668896 33698866 33568853 33398848 33008852
32678853 32268869 31908894 31748938 31619002 31499040
31349101 31389139 31679178
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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MD 0171 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0171
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Areas affected...South Central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 072102Z - 072230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase
across portions of south-central Texas this afternoon into the early
evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns,
particularly with an ongoing cell in far southwestern Texas.
DISCUSSION...As a southward-moving, convectively-modified cold front
moves across portions of central and southwestern Texas, severe
storm activity is expected to increase in the short term --
particularly with a supercell tracking eastward from Uvalde. MUCAPE
of 2000-3000 J/kg and effective shear of 35-40 kts will support
continued convective development and organization along the modified
cold front/outflow boundary. The primary threat will be for damaging
winds and large hail, with storms continuing to pose such a threat
even after being undercut by the cold front/outflow boundary. A
severe thunderstorm watch may be needed in the next hour or two.
..Halbert/Guyer.. 03/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28120005 28620030 29110043 29600042 29820017 29919986
29919920 29919855 30069765 30049736 29899704 29549685
29089685 28679690 28309708 28039749 27899792 27899840
27919938 28120005
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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MD 0170 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 25... FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0170
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Areas affected...parts of northern West Virginia...western
Pennsylvania...southwestern New York
Concerning...Tornado Watch 25...
Valid 072055Z - 072300Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 25 continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for, mainly, marginally severe hail and locally
damaging wind gusts may persist another couple of hours, but this
potential appears unlikely to develop eastward across New York
State, or to the east/southeast of the Allegheny Mountains.
DISCUSSION...Surface observations have indicated further downward
mixing of surface dew points with continuing daytime heating ahead
of convection spreading into the Allegheny Plateau, with surface
winds remaining westerly to southwesterly across surface troughing
into the higher terrain. While low-level hodographs may be
conditionally supportive of tornadic potential near the trough, it
is not clear that thermodynamic profiles are supportive.
Eastward, and particularly to the east/southeast of the crest of the
Allegheny Mountains, cool to cold and stable boundary-layer air is
either being maintained or slow to erode. As stronger storms cross
the higher terrain into and through early evening, they should tend
to weaken with diminishing risk of producing severe hail and
damaging surface gusts.
..Kerr.. 03/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
LAT...LON 42577894 42257844 41197882 40587876 40017903 39557942
39167980 38748078 38988157 39928074 42577894
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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