MD 1163 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 379... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025
Areas affected...portions of western Texas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...
Valid 070026Z - 070130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.
SUMMARY...A few tornadoes appear likely over the next couple of
hours, and a strong tornado is possible. Otherwise, severe wind and
very large hail will remain a concern.
DISCUSSION...Right-moving, mature supercells have become established
ahead of the dryline around the Lubbock, TX vicinity. The eastern
storm has produced a well-defined outflow boundary, which the
Hockley County storm has recently anchored to. Both of these storms
are progressing across a highly buoyant airmass, where a low-level
jet is also poised to intensify this evening, resulting in stronger
low-level shear. Both of these storms are capable of producing
tornadoes, in addition to 3+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts
potentially exceeding 75 mph, especially in rear-flank downdrafts.
The Hockley county storm appears to have the best chance at
producing a strong tornado should it firmly anchor on the outflow
boundary for extended periods of time.
..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...
LAT...LON 33650263 33790220 33810123 33670036 33410020 33170043
33130121 33140182 33250249 33380261 33650263
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
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MD 1162 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 379... FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS
Mesoscale Discussion 1162
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025
Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Trans-Pecos
Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...
Valid 070011Z - 070145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.
SUMMARY...Very large hail and severe gusts will remain a concern for
at least a few more hours. A tornado also cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...Isolated supercells have become established further
south along the dryline, from extreme southeast NM into the TX Trans
Pecos. MRMS mosaic radar MESH data suggests that well over 3 inch
diameter hail may be occurring with some of these storms
(particularly the supercell over Loving County, TX). Temperatures
are over 90 F ahead of these storms, but with dewpoints only in the
55-60 F range. As such, these supercells should remain high-based
given 30+ F T/Td spreads. The well-mixed boundary layer will support
severe gusts with these storms, with the very-large hail risk
continuing for the next few hours. Mediocre boundary layer moisture,
and the lack of overall stronger low-level shear, should temper the
overall tornado threat, though a tornado cannot be completely ruled
out.
..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31030401 31970394 32740367 33010319 32970185 32710109
32360112 31830163 31230212 30860250 30760340 31030401
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
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MD 1161 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 378...379... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS/NORTHEAST NM INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1161
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025
Areas affected...Parts of eastern CO/western KS/northeast NM into
the TX/OK Panhandles
Concerning...Tornado Watch 378...379...
Valid 062345Z - 070115Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 378, 379 continues.
SUMMARY...Supercells with a tornado and very large hail threat will
continue this evening, with some increase in severe-wind potential
possible with time.
DISCUSSION...Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening
from southeast/east-central CO into the OK Panhandle, within a
moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. MRMS data
suggest the southern most cells may be producing very large hail,
and a threat for baseball-size (or larger hail) will likely continue
as these cells move southeastward this evening.
A weak surface boundary extends from southwest OK westward into the
TX Panhandle, and then northwestward toward the Raton Mesa vicinity.
Backed surface winds and richer low-level moisture near/north of
this boundary could support locally greater tornado potential with
the ongoing supercells in this area and any additional development
this evening.
Farther north, a cluster of supercells over east-central CO is
approaching northwest KS. This cluster may continue southeastward
this evening with some potential for all severe hazards. Some
organized severe potential will likely spread into parts of western
KS with time, where downstream watch issuance will likely be needed.
..Dean/Gleason.. 06/06/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 37960447 39280303 39460242 39480196 39300150 38780107
37900077 37120044 36390007 36230007 36020004 35800008
35480062 35350110 35340243 35580304 36300397 36870411
37510440 37960447
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
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