MD 1756 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1756
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Areas affected...Portions of central Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 270635Z - 270730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A supercell moving southward near I-95 in central Virginia
may produce isolated wind damage and small to marginally severe
hail.
DISCUSSION...Convection continues in parts of central Virginia in
association with a passing shortwave trough. Despite some nocturnal
cooling, modified observed 00Z soundings from the Mid-Atlantic
suggest MLCIN is not overly large/prohibitive. A supercell with a
prominent mid-level mesocyclone continues southward near I-95. With
the KAKQ VAD showing around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear, this activity
should be able to persist for another hour or two before the
shortwave trough moves away from the region. Isolated damaging winds
and small to marginally severe hail will be possible as this storm
tracks near the Richmond metro.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...
LAT...LON 37287711 37287729 37337737 37437754 37777777 37997780
38137775 38177754 38107731 37897718 37587700 37457694
37347699 37287711
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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