5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Aug 2025 23:52:50 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Aug 2025 21:22:07 GMT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 202339
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.
Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of showers
and thunderstorms. Earlier satellite-derived surface wind data
depicted that the system does not have a well-defined center.
Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional
development over the next day or so while the system moves
west-southwestward at around 15 mph and a short-lived tropical
depression could form. By the end of the week, environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
...OUTER BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE ERIN BRUSHING THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... ...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS... As of 8:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 the center of Erin was located near 32.2, -73.2 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 941 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025000 WTNT35 KNHC 202351 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 38A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...OUTER BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE ERIN BRUSHING THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... ...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 73.2W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia, including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 73.2 West. Erin is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast and east-northeast by Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda tonight and early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so, and Erin could become a major hurricane again tonight. Weakening is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to remain a hurricane into the weekend. Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 41002, located west of the center, has reported sustained winds of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (115 km/h). The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline beginning in the next several hours. Elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast, wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely Thursday through early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda Thursday and Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin may bring up to 1 inch of rainfall to the Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon into Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2025000 WTNT25 KNHC 202035 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 73.6W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT.......140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT.......220NE 230SE 180SW 180NW. 4 M SEAS....450NE 420SE 330SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 73.6W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 73.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.2N 72.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 230SE 190SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.5N 70.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. 34 KT...230NE 240SE 220SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 37.5N 67.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 50 KT...160NE 150SE 140SW 130NW. 34 KT...280NE 240SE 240SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.2N 63.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 50 KT...170NE 180SE 150SW 130NW. 34 KT...300NE 240SE 240SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 41.0N 57.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 80SE 110SW 80NW. 50 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 130NW. 34 KT...320NE 300SE 260SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 43.1N 50.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW 130NW. 34 KT...320NE 340SE 270SW 260NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 49.0N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 200SE 180SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 340SW 260NW. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 54.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...280NE 360SE 360SW 260NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 73.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025000 WTNT45 KNHC 202137 CCA TCDAT5 Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 38...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Corrected usually to unusually in fourth paragraph Erin continues to look impressive on satellite imagery, with a fairly symmetric cloud pattern and numerous convective banding features. Upper-level outflow remains well-defined over most parts of the circulation. An AMSR microwave image from just before 18Z showed a concentric eyewall structure with an outer ring of convection at a radius of 70-80 n mi from the center and an inner eyewall at a radius of about 20 n mi. The current intensity estimate is held at 95 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak classifications from TAB and SAB and objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS. The hurricane is moving northward with a forward speed of around 12 kt. The steering scenario and track forecast reasoning have not changed from the previous advisory. Erin should move around the western and northwestern periphery of a mid-level subtropical anticyclone over the next day or so, moving between Bermuda and the U.S. east coast. After that, the system should accelerate northeastward and east-northeastward while embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies over the north Atlantic. The official forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction and is in good agreement with the NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. Although Erin is over warm waters with ample mid- to low-level moisture, The concentric convective ring structure of the system will likely prevent significant strengthening and the official intensity forecast now only shows a slight-short term increase in intensity, similar to the DSHIPS and LGEM guidance. Beginning in about 36 hours, the SHIPS model diagnoses a large increase in vertical wind shear so a weakening trend is anticipated from that time onward. The predicted structure of the cyclone in the global models indicates that extratropical transition should be underway in 3-4 days, while Erin passes over much cooler waters. Erin is an unusually large hurricane. For hurricanes north of 30N latitude, its tropical-storm-force wind radii are in the 75th percentile of the Atlantic basin record. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags. 2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today and lasting through Thursday. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads impassible. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Thursday through early Friday. 4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 31.2N 73.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 33.2N 72.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 35.5N 70.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 37.5N 67.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 39.2N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 41.0N 57.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 43.1N 50.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 49.0N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 25/1800Z 54.0N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2025 000
FONT15 KNHC 202037
PWSAT5
HURRICANE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS
...110 MPH...175 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
WALLOPS CDA 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NORFOLK NAS 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NORFOLK VA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 25 4(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
CHERRY PT NC 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEW RIVER NC 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
SURF CITY NC 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
WILMINGTON NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Aug 2025 23:52:50 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Aug 2025 21:22:07 GMT
